Pointing to the bar labeled “blacks killed by whites” as “what the media is hysterical about,” the shared image suggests that ongoing protests across the U.S. Nuzzo also cautioned that all these numbers were rough approximations for the sake of illustration, and that the reality is much more complicated than can be captured in either a single Facebook graph. Meanwhile, if you’re a black person in 2013, your chances of being murdered by another black person are 56 in a million, and your chances of being murdered by a white person are five in a million. If you’re a white person in 2013, Nuzzo explained, your chances of being murdered by another white person are approximately 11 in a million, and your chances of being murdered by a black person are two in a million. Taking respective population sizes into account, and based on the link to 2013 census data at the bottom of the graph in the posts, Nuzzo interpreted the data as follows: If you’re a white person in 2013, based on the FBI data, your chances of being killed by anyone are roughly 13 in a million if you’re a black person in 2013, your chances of being killed by anyone were 62 in a million, which is almost five times what the odds are for a white person. Mentch told Reuters that a “more sensible way to look at the data is to compare apples to apples and then oranges to oranges.” In other words, he and Nuzzo suggested to look at per capita murder rates, then look at the likelihood of being killed by someone of the same race or someone of a different race. He explained that the “per 1,000,000 members of the murderer’s race” label at the top of the chart means that “you’re changing what you’re standardizing by in each of those bar charts,” which “doesn’t seem appropriate in this circumstance.” In other words, the numbers are presented side by side as if directly comparable, but are based on different benchmarks (per million black people or per million white people).īecause the graph labels “whites killed by blacks” as 9.83 per million black Americans and “whites killed by whites” as 10.22 per million white Americans, it gives the impression that “white people are killed by white and black people at about the same rate, which is definitely not the case when you standardize per capita,” Mentch said. “The thing first and foremost that jumps out is that the different columns are being standardized in different ways on the same chart,” said Mentch, also an Assistant Professor of Statistics at the University of Pittsburgh. Nuzzo, Ph.D., and Lucas Mentch, Ph.D., from the American Statistical Association ( ) to ask whether this bar graph accurately represents the FBI data from which it originated. Reuters contacted two statisticians, Regina L. By that logic, for example, ‘only’ 0.77 white people out of every million white people killed a black person, while 9.83 black people out of every million black people killed a white person. The creator divided the raw numbers of the four different murder categories by either 245 or 42, depending on the race of the murderer, to find the “per million” rates used for the bar graph. was about 245 million in 2013, and that the black population was about 42 million. Working backwards to reconstruct how the figures in the bar chart were calculated, Reuters found the creator of the content assumed that the white population of the U.S. Of 3,005 murders of white people, 2,509 perpetrators (83.5%) were white while 409 perpetrators (13.6%) were black. in 2013, 2,245 perpetrators (90%) were black and 189 perpetrators (7.6%) were white. Īccording to this FBI data, of the 2,491 murders of black people reported in the U.S. As its source, the graph cites “2013 FBI Crime Report, Expanded Homicide Data Table 6” as the source of this information, available here. According to the label on the chart, these values are “per 1,000,000 members of the murderer’s race”. The graph has a bar for “whites killed by blacks” (with a value of 9.83), one for “blacks killed by whites” (with a value of 0.77), one for “whites killed by whites” (with a value of 10.22), and one for “blacks killed by blacks” (with a value of 53.94). Examples of such posts can be found here, here
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